Actually I specifically looked into that question in the course of writing the book on punditry from which this essay is taken. Several major columnists I looked at hadn’t really put out anything particularly wrong in terms of predictions, or vastly contradicted themselves, etc., that I could find. One reason for that is that few people with non-military backgrounds, for instance, consider themselves to nonetheless be worthy of telling the public what’s going to happen in every subsequent military conflict. Beyond that, I’ve asked in vain for anyone who thinks Krauthammer, Friedman, et al are useful to cite some prediction they’ve made that went against the grain and turned out to be correct. It’s been ten years, and I’ve yet to find one. In short, it’s probably best not to portray one’s self as an expert on issues that have life and death consequences, and it’s all probably wise not to constantly attack others who turn out to have been correct, as Krauthammer has a habit of doing.

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